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Week Ending January 1st, 2022

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Brown's Rants

Back to the Grind

Happy New Year everyone! Before I get going on this week’s commentary, I want to remind everyone that starting this week (Wednesday, January 5) I will be hosting three straight days of my 2022 Retail Forecast. There are three sessions planned (one each at different times on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday) for “Retail 2022: From Crisis to Comeback.”

Please join us on any of these dates. The session will be highly informative and entertaining. I will be breaking down the trends that got us here and where the market will be going in the months ahead. In addition to detailing who will be growing or contracting in 2022, I will issue my ten predictions for the coming year. The presentation will be about 45 minutes with 15 minutes for Q&A.

If you have not registered yet, you can choose your day and time at this link. Join us—you will not regret it.
Register Here

Last week, Mastercard Advisors reported that their tracking of holiday sales indicates an increase of 8.5% over 2020 levels. The official numbers from the Commerce Department are still a week or two away, but Mastercard tallies are a great bellwether for where the official government numbers typically land.

Last year’s official totals came in at 8.3%, far exceeding most analyst predictions and resulting in the largest annual increase in decades. Of course, eCommerce played heavily into this—as did the fact that Americans shifted spending towards goods and away from travel and services in the pre-vaccine days of the pandemic. The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted this year’s totals to be between 8.5% and 10.5% with the possibility of 2021 tallies breaking records if on the higher end of the scale.

While the Mastercard and Commerce Department numbers indicate two entirely different data points and set of analyses, Mastercard numbers in the last few years have typically come in a few basis points higher than the government data. I would not be surprised if the final Commerce Department data comes in at the lower end of the predictions made by the NRF. Regardless, all indications are this was a banner holiday season despite supply chain challenges, despite inflation concerns, despite sagging consumer confidence (due to inflation concerns) and despite the ongoing surge of CoVid cases thanks to the Omicron variant. Consumers still showed up despite all these things.

In fact, the news for retail has been overwhelmingly positive. Costar recently published a report citing 2021 retail closures to be at an all-time low following the distress of 2020. Both they and Coresight indicate store openings in 2022 to outpace closures for the first time since 2014. The data I track corresponds; I haven’t seen this much growth in the pipeline in at least seven years. And… it is not all dollar stores—which has been the case in recent times (though they still are the most active retail segment).

This is not to say that we aren’t seeing some impacts from Omicron. Foot traffic levels, which were rebounding nicely everywhere, have dipped again for urban retail and in-restaurant dining is slowing as well. As of December 31st, the US set a record for the highest seven-day average (over 343,000 per day). Most experts believe this metric will hit the 500,000 mark this week. It’s challenging enough that Goldman Sachs, which had taken a hard line about insisting its workers return to the office this past summer, is now asking their staff to work from home the first couple of weeks of January. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson’s government in the UK has warned public sector employers there to be prepared for “worst-case scenarios” of 10%, 20%, or 25% absence rates in the week ahead as Omicron rages there.

Retailers and restaurants (already challenged by a labor shortage) will certainly be facing staffing challenges in the weeks ahead if they aren’t already. That said, even with Omicron, there are some snippets of potentially good news. Data is starting to emerge to support the case that while far more contagious, Omicron is also far less deadly. This could actually bolster the case made by Wall Street Journal columnist Rob Arnott yesterday in, “Omicron Variant May Save Lives,” that the new variant may end up bringing us all closer to herd immunity. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but if the path of Omicron in South Africa is any guide, their surge was intense but short. These numbers will be falling significantly by the end of January. For now, things on the CoVid front are going to get worse before they get better.

Garrick

People with Omicron are Less Likely to Need Hospitalization; UK Report Says
New York Times 12/31

Studies Suggests Why Omicron is Less Severe; it Spares the Lungs
New York Times 12/31

Scientists Say Omicron May Peak in the US in mid-January, but Could Still Overwhelm Hospitals
New York Times 12/31

CoVid; Workplaces Told to Plan for Absences of Up to 25%
BBC 12/30

22 Restaurant Deals that Changes the Industry in 2021
QSR 12/29

Extended Return Season Could Challenge Retailers
Reuters 12/29

Retailers Opened More Stores Than They Closed in 2021
The Hill 12/29

Retail Store Closings 2021: The List of Chains that Closed Stores This Year
Alabama.com 12/28

Lab Study Suggests Omicron Variant Might Help Defend Against Delta
New York Times 12/28

Announced Store Closings in 2021 Approach All-Time Low
Costar 12/27

Mastercard: US Holiday Sales Rise 8.5%
Reuters 12/26

The Running List of Major Retail Deals in 2021
Retail Dive 12/25

Economic Headlines stories of the week

The States Raising Minimum Wage in 2022 Are…
Chain Store Age 12/30

The Omicron Surge is Making it Hard to Staff Stores and Restaurants
WFAE 12/29

The Evolution of Retail Shrinkage
Robin Report 12/28

These Food Items Are Getting More Expensive in 2022
Wall Street Journal 12/27

Buy Now Pay Later Increasingly Driving Demand
WWD 12/27

Record Beef Prices, but Ranchers Aren’t Cashing In
New York Times 12/27

Property Trends stories of the week

Northern Nevada Retail Update
Nevada Business 1/1

Next Urban Development Trend May be Office to Residential Conversions
Sacramento Business Journal 12/31

Omicron is Reversing NYC’s Long Road to Retail Recovery
Footwear News 12/30

Report Indicates Manhattan Real Estate Market Showing Progress
RIS Media 12/30

Costar Predicts Retail Rebound in Big US Cities
Costar 12/30

Costar Predicts Retail Investors to Play it Safe
Costar 12/30

Doubling Down on NYC; Chelsea Bounces Back
New York Times 12/29

Non-Traditional Tenants Drive Retail Up Rents
Costar 12/29

New Trepp Report Examines Parallels of Office and Retail Markets
Cision 12/28

Developers Working to Build a San Antonio Nightlife District
MYSA 12/28

Nation’s First Outlet Center to Become a Residential Development
Chain Store Age 12/28

Strong Leasing Points to Los Angeles Retail Market Improvement
Costar 12/28

Triumph of the Mall: How Victor Gruen’s Grand Urban Vision Became Our Suburban Shopping Reality
The Conversation 12/27

Pandemic-Battered San Francisco Retailers Brace for Prolonged Recovery
Costar 12/26

Retail Headlines stories of the week

Buc-ee’s to Open First Location in Mississippi
Nola.com 12/31

Rite Aid and CVS Are Closing Stores in 2022. What’s Driving it?
WHYY 12/31

Porsche Rolling out Pop Up Stores
Clean Technica 12/31

Express Car Wash Concepts Announces Acquisition of Three Bee Clean Express Car Wash Locations
Cision 12/31

Roy’s Convenience Stores Selling 7 Locations
CSP 12/31

Bed Bath & Beyond Closing Suburban Seattle Store (Westwood Village)
West Seattle Blog 12/30

Harbor Freight Coming to New Philadelphia in Late Winter
Times Reporter 12/30

Harbor Freight Opening Store in Hermitage, PA
Sharon Herald 12/30

Hobby Lobby Opens at Destiny USA
Syracuse.com 12/30

Romance Bookstore, Meet Cute Romance Bookshop & Fizzery, Opening Third Location
Forbes 12/30

Emigh Ace Hardware Coming to El Dorado Hills
Sacramento Business Journal 12/30

Daiso Opens First Las Vegas Store
Las Vegas Review Journal 12/30

7-Eleven is Coming Back to the Triangle
Charlotte News & Observer 12/30

Copper Store Opens Fifth Retail Location in Phoenix Area
HME News 12/29

The Future of the Retail Gas Station
Robin Report 12/29

LL Bean Closing Tysons Corner Store
WTOP News 12/29

26Red Opens NYC Flagship Store
Apparel News 12/29

Falling Prices Opens New Citrus Heights Store
Sacramento Business Journal 12/28

Kendra Scott Opens New Orlando Store
Culture Map Houston 12/28

Nike Unite Store Opens in Orlando
Orlando Sentinel 12/28

Harbor Freight Opening Store in Pooler, GA
WSAV.com 12/28

Kwik Trip Opens 800th Store
Spectrum News 12/28

Saatva Opens New Store in DC
MTC 12/27

How Luxury Brand Zegna is Reinventing Itself as A Public Company
Forbes 12/27

REI: A Radical Co-Op
Robin Report 12/26

Hobby Lobby Opens in Serins Grove, PA
Pennsylvania News Today 12/26

Grocery Headlines stories of the week

New Publix Planned for Pompano Beach
Point Publishing 12/31

Southeastern Grocers Remodeling 50 Stores in 2022
Chain Store Age 12/30

Ultrafast Delivery Firm Buyk Expands to Chicago, Targets Rapid Expansion Across the US in 2022
Perishable New 12/30

H-E-B Opens New Clearlake Store
Houston Business Journal 12/29

Hy-Vee is Pushing South But Won’t Mess With Texas Citing H-E-B Dominance
KSAT 12/29

Walmart Upping Game With New Fast Casual in Store Restaurants; Shawarma Press
Austin Culture Map 12/29

Houston’s First Black-Owned Grocery Store Has Opened
Essence 12/27

Restaurant News stories of the week

The Ten Biggest Fast-Food Stories of 2021
The Takeout 1/1

Ten Fast Food Storylines of 2021
QSR 12/31

7 Restaurant Chain Bankruptcies that Shook the Industry in 2021
Eat This, Not That 12/30

Popeye’s Opens in Holland, Michigan
QSRweb.com 12/30

Captain Cookie and the Milkman Expands in DC
Washington Business Journal 12/30

Axe Throwing Bar to Become Part of Downtown San Jose Movie Theater Transformation
Hoodline San Jose 12/30

Tim Hortons Sets Sights on Bringing Swagger Back in 2022
Yahoo Finance 12/30

Ziggi’s Coffee Signs 150th Franchise Deal
QSR 12/30

Southern Classic Chicken Signs Multi-Unit Deal for Louisiana
QSRweb.com 12/30

Wow Wow Hawaiian Lemonade is One to Watch in 2022
QSR 12/29

Jersey Mike’s Ramps up Expansion in San Antonio
Express News 12/29

Ziggi’s Coffee Opens Third Store in Colorado Springs
QSR 12/29

Pizza Factory Expands in California’s Central Valley
QSR 12/29

Dickey’s Opens 700th Unit
Fast Casual 12/29

Mountain Mike’s Pizza Opens in Orem, Utah
QSR 12/29

Restaurant Employees Picking up the Slack
QSRweb.com 12/28

Pizza Factory Development Reaches All Time High
QSR 12/28

South Korean Chicken Chain Opening in SoCal
Fast Casual 12/28

Clean Juice Adds Five New Franchise Partners
QSR 12/28

Greenleaf Juicing Company Opens in Nora; Plans More Expansion in 2022
Indianapolis Star 12/28

Focus Brands Plans More Non-Traditional Growth
Franchise Times 12/28

Plant-Based Alternatives Push Further into Fast Food
The Food Institute 12/28

The Bagel Nook Expands in Las Vegas
Bake Magazine 12/28

21 New Coffee Concepts This Year
Daily Coffee News 12/28

You’ll Find a Food Hall in This Tampa Gas Station
Fox 13 Tampa Bay 12/28

Sankrati Wants to be the Chipotle of Indian Food
Franchise Times 12/28

Habit Burger Grill Expands in Coachella Valley
QSR 12/27

REITs, Landlord & Development stories of the week

KT Urban Sells Cupertino’s The Oaks Shopping Center to Swedish Buyer
Silicon Valley Business Journal 12/30

Dallas Investor Pays $103 Million for One of Denver’s Biggest Malls (Westminster Shopping Center)
Costar 12/30

Maryland Firm Pays $58 Million for Raleigh Shopping Center
Costar 12/30

Atlanta-Based Developer Buys Last Former Kmart in Tampa for Retail Redevelopment
Costar 12/28

New Jersey Firm Scoops up The Village at Pittsburgh Mills
Costar 12/28

New York Investor Buys Southbay Pavilion Mall Near Los Angeles
Costar 12/28

First National Enters Oklahoma with Purchase of Tulsa’s Summit Square Shopping Center
Costar 12/28

Irgens Buys Former Boston Store Building at Brookfield Square
Milwaukee BizTImes 12/27

ecommerce, omnichannel, retail tech stories of the week

American Eagle Completes Acquisition of Quiet Logistics
CSA 12/30

Global Study: Retailers to Centralize Omnichannel Operations in 2022
Fibre2Fashion 12/29

Technology at the Forefront for Restaurants in 2022
Pizza Marketplace 12/28

Why eCommerce Growth will Benefit From Stores New Role
Retail Touchpoints 12/28

Best Online Retail Stories of 2021
Digital Commerce 360 12/28

Let the (VR, AR, MR) Games Begin
Robin Report 12/27

The Future of QR Codes is More QR Codes, with Restaurants Leading the Way
PYMNTS 12/27

In 2022, Robots will Conquer Food Delivery and Distribution
Dot.LA 12/27

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